The Electric Car Revolution Is Accelerating

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The Electric Car Revolution Is Accelerating

July 7, 2017

Electric cars will outsell fossil-fuel powered vehicles within two decades as battery prices plunge, turning the global auto industry upside down and signaling economic turmoil for oil-exporting countries.

The Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecast says adoption of emission-free vehicles will happen more quickly than previously estimated because the cost of building cars is falling so fast. The seismic shift will see cars with a plug account for a third of the global auto fleet by 2040 and displace about 8 million barrels a day of oil production—more than the 7 million barrels Saudi Arabia exports today.


The forecast is BNEF’s most bullish to date and is more aggressive than projections made by the International Energy Agency. Surging investment in lithium-ion batteries, higher manufacturing capacity at companies including Tesla Inc. and Nissan Motor Co., as well as emerging consumer demand from China to Europe support BNEF’s projections, which also include:

  • In just eight years, electric cars will be as cheap as gasoline vehicles, pushing the global fleet to 530 million vehicles by 2040
     
  • Electricity consumption from EVs will grow to 1,800 terawatt-hours in 2040, or 5 percent of global power demand, from 6 terawatt-hours in 2016
     
  • There's around 90 gigawatt hours of EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity online now, and this is set to rise to 270 gigawatt hours by 2021.
     
  • Charging infrastructure will continue to be an issue with bottlenecks capping growth in key Chinese, U.S. and European markets emerging in the mid-2030s

SOURCE:   Bloomberg

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